Brief Reviews |
From the Clinica Medica, Dipartimento di Medicina Clinica e Sperimentale (G.M.), Ateneo "Federico II" Napoli; Laboratoro di Epidemiologia Clinica Cardiovascolare, Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri (A.D.B., R.M.), Consorzio Mario Negri Sud, S. Maria Imbaro (CH); Istituto di Medicina Interna e Geriatria (G.D.M.), Università di Palermo, Italy.
Correspondence to Giovanni Di Minno, MD, Clinica Medica, Dipartimento di Medicina, Clinica e Sperimentale, Via S. Pansini 5, 80131 Napoli, Italy. E-mail diminno{at}unina.it
| Abstract |
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Key Words: fibrinogen risk factor stroke myocardial ischemia meta-analysis
| Introduction |
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Recommendations for the management of CVD in the general population as well as for people with previous cardiovascular events were recently formulated jointly by various medical associations. These recommendations focus on preventive interventions based on the summation of risks rather than addressing the individual who is a carrier of an isolated high-risk factor (the philosophy being that individuals with a combination of borderline risks may actually be at considerably greater risk than subjects with a single very high risk factor). Thus, these recommendations for the primary prevention of coronary heart disease in clinical practice focus only on cholesterol, hypertension, and smoking habits.17 18 19 Because patients at risk for the development of fibrinogen-related ischemic complications of atherosclerosis can be easily identified and treatment strategies have been developed to protect against these complications, clinically oriented prevention recommendations should consider the role of fibrinogen in CVD. In an effort to strengthen the clinical impact of measuring plasma fibrinogen, we performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) Is epidemiological evidence still supporting plasma fibrinogen as an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease? (2) Is plasma fibrinogen measurement improving prediction of future ischemic events by established risk factors? (3) What areas of uncertainty remain with respect to the association between fibrinogen and CVD?
| Methods |
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Statistical Analysis
Data from different studies were combined using the
general variance-based method.43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 This method requires
only information on the OR estimate and 95% CI of each
study.44 95% CIs were used to assess the variance of each
study effect. When provided by the authors, adjusted ORs and their CIs
were preferred. Crude ORs and their 95% CIs were used when an adjusted
estimate was not provided. These estimates were used to carry out the
overview for all studies as well as for the subgroups. To examine the
strength of the association between total
cardiovascular events and the different subgroups, we
fitted a multivariate inverse varianceweighed linear
regression of the logarithmic ORs for total events as dependent
variable against the variables. The weights that were obtained
with the variance-based method were adopted for the regression
analysis.
2 was used to assess the magnitude of
heterogeneity among studies, ie, the within-group
heterogeneity (Het-w).44 The
2 with degrees of freedom 1 less than the
number of groups was used to assess the magnitude of the
heterogeneity of the ORs between the subgroups of
studies, ie, the between-group heterogeneity
(Het-b).45 46
Subgroup Analysis
Duration of follow-up, mean plasma fibrinogen values at
baseline, percentage of current smokers, mean age of the study
population, and study design (prospective, cross-sectional, and
case-control) were taken into consideration to stratify for potential
confounders (subgroup analyses). Continuous variables were
dichotomized according to their approximate median values. The criteria
used for subgroup analysis according to different study designs
(prospective, cross-sectional, and case-control) are given below.
Prospective Studies
Cardiovascular events were presented
according to tertiles of fibrinogen in the majority of the
studies.20 22 23 24 25 26 28 32 The relationship between
fibrinogen levels and cardiovascular events was
determined by comparing higher and lower tertiles of fibrinogen. The
results of 3 prospective studies (Gothenburg and Scottish Heart Health
Study, Caerphilly-Speedwell)20 25 26 published as
quintiles were recalculated into tertiles using a conservative approach
that assumes a linear increase in events within quintiles. This method
tends to underestimate the risk associated to fibrinogen
tertiles.15
Cross-Sectional Studies
The effect of fibrinogen level in cross-sectional studies was
evaluated by comparing upper and lower quartiles. Three studies
presented their results as quartiles of
fibrinogen.33 34 37 In the Prevention Cardiovasculaire en
Medecine du Travail study, tertiles of fibrinogen were used because the
results were presented only as unadjusted estimates of the OR
of the higher tertile of plasma fibrinogen level compared with the
lower one.35 Sharp et al36 presented
their results as quintiles of fibrinogen. These were recalculated.
Case-Control Studies
OR and 95% CI values were computed by comparing higher
quartiles of fibrinogen to lower ones38 40 41 In 1 case,
it was not possible to recalculate risk estimates into quartiles; thus
the unadjusted estimate according to the median value, as
presented by the authors, was used.39
| Results |
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Thirteen prospective studies evaluated a total of 47 323 subjects
(Table 1
); 5 cross-sectional and 4 case-control studies
recruited 15 537 and 1625 subjects, respectively (Table 2
).
Figure 1
summarizes of OR estimates and
their 95% CIs. The overall OR estimate from all studies was 1.99 (95%
CI, 1.85 to 2.13). The Het-w test was statistically significant
(P<0.05).
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When all the prospective studies were considered, a total of 2581 events in 47 323 subjects was observed and the estimate of risk of CVD was more than doubled when comparing the higher tertile to the lower one. Eight prospective studies were conducted in general populations and 1910 CV events were found in 37 684 subjects.20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 The overall estimate of risk of cardiovascular events in subjects in the higher tertile of fibrinogen was more than doubled compared with that of subjects in the lower tertile.
Eight prospective studies were carried out on healthy men and a total of 1587 CV events in 24 983 subjects was observed.20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Three studies on healthy women reported 404 CV events in 13 803 individuals.20 23 26 No difference in the estimate of CV risk was found after separate analyses for men and women (Het-b test, not significant [NS]). Five prospective studies on high-risk subjects recruited 9639 individuals who experienced 671 events.26 29 31 32 Subjects in the higher tertile of fibrinogen had a 92% greater risk of CV events. No difference in CV risk was evident between studies in the general population and those in high-risk subjects (Het-b test, NS). No effect modification emerged from studies on subjects with or without previous CVD.
In cross-sectional and case-control studies, the overall estimates of risk in subjects with higher levels of fibrinogen compared with those in the lower tertile were 1, 5, and 3 times higher, respectively.
Subgroup Analysis
Duration of follow-up was analyzed only for
prospective studies (Figure 2A
). Studies
with duration of follow-up above and below 5.2 years had comparable ORs
(2.5 versus 2.24; Het-b, NS). Similar results were obtained by
examining the effect of duration of follow-up in studies that recruited
high-risk subjects. In studies in general populations, subjects had an
6.0 year (median) follow-up. Studies with duration of follow up
above and below the median value had a similar risk of CV events (OR,
2.40 versus 2.70). Duration of follow up did not influence the results
of studies in healthy men as well as in high-risk subjects.
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Mean fibrinogen values of the subjects recruited in each study
were used as rough estimates of the fibrinogen level of the population
of origin (Figure 2B
). When all the studies were taken into
consideration, the risk of CV events was almost twice as high in
studies with mean fibrinogen values above 303 mg/dL. No difference in
the estimates of risk were apparent when mean fibrinogen values
measured in the patients recruited were examined according to study
design (ie, cross-sectional and case-control studies).
The percentage of smokers in each study was used as an index of
the interplay between smoking habits and fibrinogen levels in
determining the level of CV risk (Figure 2C
). No difference was
apparent between studies according to the prevalence of smokers above
and below the median value of 36% when all studies were considered.
Similar results were obtained by evaluating all prospective studies or
prospective studies on males, on the general population or high risk
populations alone.
The prevalence of smoking in cross-sectional studies did not change the estimate of risk attributable to fibrinogen levels. It was not possible to evaluate the role of smoking habits in case-control studies.
Mean age of subjects recruited in each study was used to evaluate the
role of fibrinogen levels in younger and older patients (Figure 2D
).
Comparable results were found in the whole study group, in
prospective studies of general populations, in prospective studies of
high-risk individuals, in cross-sectional studies, and in case-control
studies, all of which showed no effect modification.
Meta Regression
To examine the strength of the association between total
cardiovascular events and the selected subgroups, an
inverse variance-weighed multiple linear regression of the logarithmic
ORs for total events were used as dependent variables against study
design, percentage of smokers, age, and mean plasma fibrinogen values
as explanatory variables (Table 3
).
Cross-sectional studies behaved differently. Mean fibrinogen values and
percentage of smokers at baseline did not influence the risk
estimates.
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Limitations of the Present Meta-Analysis
Publication biases and different study designs may have
overestimated the risk related to high plasma fibrinogen levels. The
somewhat lower estimates of CV risk in cross-sectional studies is
likely to be caused by inherent selection biases. This can be because
of specific characteristics of this type of study (ie, selection of
subjects with better prognosis). Conversely, because of the type of
studies or the use of fibrinogen values measured close to the index
event (ie, more representative of the hemostatic state
before the event), there might have been emphasis in the role of
fibrinogen as a CV risk factor in case-control studies. However, the
results of the present meta-analysis are strengthened by
those of the Scottish Heart Health Study,25 in which no
interaction between fibrinogen levels and other
cardiovascular risk factors occurs. On the other hand,
despite differences in the analytical procedures used for their
meta-analysis, Danesh et al42 achieved results
similar to ours. Finally, on the bases of meta-regression
analysis, it is unlikely that the selection characteristics of
the studies retrieved (mean age, healthy/high-risk subjects, smoking
habits, duration of follow-up, and mean plasma fibrinogen values) may
have affected the estimates of the risk associated with quantiles of
fibrinogen values.
Because different methods with differences in variability,
accuracy, precision, and agreement among different laboratories have
been used to measure plasma fibrinogen in the studies retrieved (Table 4
). This may have hampered the accuracy
of the risk estimates. However, the net results of each studythe
association between high plasma fibrinogen and stroke and myocardial
infarctionwere unequivocal. Each method used different cutoff values
(see legend of Figure 1
). However, comparisons between higher
and lower figures (as in the present analysis) reduce the
disadvantages inherent to the differences in the methods used.
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Is Plasma Fibrinogen Measurement Improving Prediction of Future
Ischemic Events By Established Risk Factors?
1. Fibrinogen Interaction With Other Risk Factors
In the Prospective Cardiovascular Muster
study, fibrinogen plasma levels of 277 mg/dL increased by 2-fold the
risk of myocardial infarction in subjects with LDL
cholesterol >163 mg/dL.23 In the Framingham
study, fibrinogen levels of 312 mg/dL increased by 6-fold the risk of
myocardial infarction in smokers.22 In the Gotheburg
study, fibrinogen levels >500 mg/dL increased by 12-fold the risk of
stroke in subjects with systolic blood pressure >180
mm Hg.20
2. Attributable Risk
In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities
study, the role of fibrinogen was marginal, albeit significant, when
the data were corrected for major cardiovascular risk
factors.27 However in the Scottish Heart Health Study,
which examined various factors, fibrinogen was the second most
important factor for predicting causes of death in men and the sixth
most important factor for women.61 Based on the data from
>1300 individuals who had experienced recurrence of a
coronary event, the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della
Sopravvivenza Nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI) Prevention Group
prepared a Coronary Risk Chart for the secondary prevention of
CHD. In addition to using fibrinogen levels to determine the overall
risk of individual patients, this chart assesses attributable risks for
established CV risk factors.62 Fibrinogen levels higher
than median values (371 mg/dL) predicted myocardial reinfarction in
younger as much as in older individuals. The prognostic role of
fibrinogen for the evaluation of the global risk for CVD was comparable
with that of major CV risk factors. Furthermore, prediction of CVD by
established factors was improved by 8% when fibrinogen was added to
the analysis. Under the same conditions of analysis,
cholesterol improved prediction by 5%, hypertension by
5%, and diabetes mellitus by 7% (Figure 3
).
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What Areas of Uncertainty Remain With Respect to the Association
Between Fibrinogen and CVD?
1. Methods to Measure Plasma Fibrinogen
Taking into account accuracy (as evaluated with reference to
the gravimetric method), precision (as evaluated by determining the
inter- and intra-assay coefficients of variations), and agreement of
methods (among different laboratories), the (semiquantitative) Clauss
clotting method has been suggested to be a reliable manner of measuring
very low and very high plasma fibrinogen levels in short- and long-term
studies of repeatability.10 Recent data support the notion
that the nephelometric method may provide a prediction comparable to
that of the Clauss method.63 Although requiring further
confirmation, these observations raise the possibility that commonly
recognized reference methods other than the Clauss may be recommended
for future epidemiological studies. However, the potential availability
of a simpler, easier, and more reproducible method by no means hampers
the clinical impact of measuring plasma fibrinogen levels.
2. Pathogenetic Significance
Similar to other acute-phase proteins, expression of
fibrinogen (ie, its plasma level) is regulated by interleukin-6 and
impaired by transforming growth factor-ß.10 64 65
C-reactive protein (CRP) is also an acute-phase reactant; its baseline
levels predicted the risk of a first myocardial infarction and stroke
independently of other risk factors in apparently healthy men as well
as in patients with unstable angina.42 66 67 68 Fibrinogen
correlates with CRP both in men and women.42 Thus, the
question is whether raised plasma fibrinogen is the epiphenomenon of
the severity of the vascular damage taking place. Vascular injury,
response to vascular injury, and plaque rupture and fissuring are major
stages of the development and progression of
atherosclerosis.1 2 3 Presently, it is
unclear whether plasma fibrinogen is related to 1 or more of these
stages. However, although relevant from a therapeutic point of view
(ie, measuring plasma fibrinogen to identify subjects in whom
interventions on established risk factors affecting specific stages in
atherosclerosis have to be greatest), the question is
of little relevance from a prognostic point of view.
3. GeneEnvironment Interaction
High fibrinogen levels have been reported to be accounted
for by environmental and genetic differences.69 70 71 72 73 74 75 Some
polymorphisms modulate the response of genes to environmental
stimuli, ie, the same stimulus may cause different levels of fibrinogen
in subjects with different polymorphisms.76 This is
consistent with the possibility that a theoretical level
(determined by genes) and a real level (because of the interaction of
genes with the environment) of fibrinogen may play a role in the intra-
and inter-population variability of fibrinogen levels and may explain,
at least in part, differences in CVD frequency and
cardiovascular death between Japan and USA. However,
despite its pathophysiological relevance, this
information is unlikely to affect the clinical impact of plasma
fibrinogen levels.
Areas of Future Research
The gradient of CHD death rate across European countries has
been associated with a different distribution of some genotypes
affecting plasma levels of factor VII.77 78 Similar to
fibrinogen, the latter is a known determinant of hypercoagulability and
of the risk of CVD.21 23 79 Whether a similar gradient for
fibrinogen is also present also is unclear.
In 2 studies,70 74 molecular variations of plasma fibrinogen have been related to arterial thrombosis regardless of their effect on plasma fibrinogen. Whether the analysis of these markers should be included in the cardiovascular risk factor profile regardless of plasma fibrinogen measurements remains to be clarified. Interleukin-6 gene variants have been reported.80 Their effect on plasma fibrinogen levels and, in turn, CVD, deserves proper investigation.
With 1 exception,16 the lack of clinical trials
demonstrating the effectiveness of lowering fibrinogen levels on hard
clinical end points is hampering the clinical impact of measuring
plasma fibrinogen levels. Plasma levels of fibrinogen are lowered by
drugs commonly used in clinical practice (Table 5
). Clinical trials with these drugs
should be encouraged to implement knowledge on the correlation between
fibrinogen and CVD.
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Within the area of cerebrovascular disease, it is presently possible to identify groups of subjects who will take advantage of therapies, including antiplatelet agents, antihypertensive therapy (or a combination of both), carotid endoarteriectomy, and anticoagulation. To improve the impact of plasma fibrinogen and address some of the issues raised above, future prospective observational or interventional studies in vascular medicine should include the measurement of fibrinogen (and its genotypes) at the beginning of and at some time during the trials. This would be particularly relevant in large studies, with appropriate statistical power, that include individuals from different geographic areas. We believe that this attitude may refine the overall individual risk, and provide the individual patient with a tailor-made intervention based on a specific mechanism and/or stage of the atherosclerotic vascular disease.
| Acknowledgments |
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Received August 14, 1998; accepted December 1, 1998.
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