Original Contributions |
From the Institute for Research in Extramural Medicine (A.J., P.J.K., H.G.R., R.J.H., G.N., J.M.D., L.M.B., C.D.A.S.), Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics (P.J.K., L.M.B.), and Department of Internal Medicine, Academic Hospital (R.J.H., C.D.A.S.), Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Correspondence to Dr Coen D.A. Stehouwer, Department of Internal Medicine, Academic Hospital Vrije Universiteit De Boelelaan 1118, 1007 MB Amsterdam, The Netherlands. E-mail cda.stehouwer{at}azvu.nl
| Abstract |
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Key Words: microalbuminuria peripheral arterial disease mortality noninsulin dependent diabetes mellitus hypertension
| Introduction |
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It is thought that the excess risk associated with MA and PAD cannot be attributed solely to an increased prevalence of conventional risk factors, such as hypertension, smoking, and noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.4 8 9 10 11 12 13 Current hypotheses aiming to explain the association of MA and PAD with incident cardiovascular disease have focused on the possibility that both MA and PAD may be markers of generalized atherosclerosis.14 15 16 17 The evidence for this is stronger for PAD than for MA. An alternative hypothesis is that MA is a marker of a generalized vascular, possibly endothelial, dysfunction that is distinct from atherosclerosis.18
To investigate these issues, we examined, in a prospective cohort study, the relations between MA and PAD on the one hand and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality on the other. We reasoned that, if MA affects risk of mortality through generalized atherosclerosis, the association of MA with mortality would be weakened by adjusting for the presence of PAD, which, as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis, would be an intermediate in the causal pathway linking MA with mortality. If, on the other hand, MA and PAD confer mutually independent excess risks of mortality, this would argue against the idea that MA affects risk through generalized atherosclerosis. In addition, such a finding would have important consequences for individual risk assessment because both measurements would be useful for estimation of cardiovascular risk.
| Subjects and Methods |
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7.5 mmol/L, all subjects with
noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM), and a random sample of
subjects with a 2-hour post-load glucose <7.5 mmol/L stratified
by age and sex were invited within 4 weeks for a second visit to
investigate glucose intolerance-related complications (709 invited, of
whom 631 (89%) participated). These subjects underwent a second OGTT
(except those who already used blood glucose-lowering agents; n=67). On
the basis of the 2 OGTTs, glucose tolerance was divided into 3
categories20 : normal glucose tolerance (NGT; n=288),
impaired glucose tolerance (IGT; n=170), and NIDDM (n=173). We chose this procedure for reasons of efficiency, because we wished to study a smaller, but still random, sample in more detail. Subjects with NGT, IGT, or NIDDM in the present study population were thus a random sample of all subjects with NGT, IGT, or NIDDM in the initial cohort. The prevalences of NGT, IGT, and NIDDM, and of associated variables, such as microalbuminuria, in the present study population are not the same as in the initial cohort, but because the exact sampling procedure is known, we can back-calculate the prevalences in the initial cohort (n=2484) from those in the second sample (n=631), as previously described in detail.19 21
From these subjects, we obtained an ankle-brachial blood pressure index
(ABPI) (n=631), a resting ECG (ECG) (n=625), and an early-morning,
first-voided spot urine sample to measure the urinary
albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) (n=607). Urinary
albumin was measured by rate nephelometry (Array Protein
System, Beckman) with a threshold of 6.2 mg/L and intra- and interassay
coefficients of variation of
5% and
8%,
respectively.22 Urinary creatinine was
measured by a modified Jaffé method. Subjects were classified as
having PAD when they had an ABPI <0.9 and/or when they had undergone a
peripheral arterial bypass or amputation. (A
reproducibility test of the Doppler-assisted systolic blood
pressure measurements to obtain the ABPI was performed in a random
sample (n=41), within 6 to 9 months after the first measurement.) The
agreement between the 2 examinations for the criteria of ABPI <0.90,
expressed as kappa, was 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49 to
0.98] indicating good agreement. An ABPI >1.50 (a level possibly
indicating medial arterial calcification23 )
could not be detected in any of the subjects. Subjects were classified
as having preexistent ischemic heart disease (IHD) when they
had an ECG with a Minnesota code 1.1 to 1.3, 4.1 to 4.3, 5.1 to 5.3, or
7.1 and/or had undergone coronary bypass surgery or
angioplasty; as having cerebrovascular disease when they had evidence
of a past transient ischemic attack or stroke according to the
WHO cardiovascular questionnaire24 ; and as
having microalbuminuria (MA) when they had an urinary
albumin concentration greater than the assay threshold (6.2
mg/L; n=336) and an ACR >2.0 mg/mmol. (An overnight ACR
>2.0 mg/mmol has a high sensitivity to detect an albumin
excretion rate >30 µg/min25 ). Of all urine
samples, 32 were excluded because of the use of an
angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor. In a
representative sample of 174 subjects, 2 urine
collections were available and the presence of MA for these subjects
was therefore based on the mean ACR of the 2 urine collections.
Blood pressure was calculated as the mean of 4 measurements, performed
on 2 different occasions, using a random-zero sphygmomanometer under
standardized conditions. Hypertension was defined as
diastolic pressure
95 mm Hg, systolic
pressure
160 mm Hg and/or the use of antihypertensive
drugs.26 Data on weight, height, body mass index (BMI),
smoking habits, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting specific plasma
insulin, fasting serum creatinine, total
cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and
triglyceride levels were obtained.19 21 Low
density lipoprotein-cholesterol was calculated by the
Friedewald formula,27 except when triglyceride
level was >4.55 mmol/L (n=23). The creatinine
clearance was calculated from serum creatinine using the
Cockcroft and Gault formula.28 Normal renal function and
mild and moderate renal failure were defined as creatinine
clearance >80, 51 to 80, and <51 mL/min, respectively. (There were no
subjects with creatinine clearance <24 mL/min.) Smoking
habits were obtained from a standardized questionnaire. Current smoking
was defined as currently smoking cigarettes and/or cigars.
Follow-up Measurements
Data on the subjects' vital status on April 1, 1997 were
collected from the mortality register of the municipality of Hoorn. Of
49 subjects who moved out of town, information on vital status was
obtained from the new local municipalities. For each subject, we
determined whether or not death had occurred in the first 5 years of
follow-up. For all subjects who died, the cause of death was extracted
from the medical records of the general practitioner
and the hospital of Hoorn, verified by 2 physicians and classified
according to the ninth edition of the International
Classification of Diseases. Cardiovascular
mortality was defined as codes 390 to 459, cancer mortality as codes
140 to 240, and sudden death as code 798. Information on cause of death
could not be obtained for 6 (10%) of the deceased subjects.
All participants gave informed consent for this study, which was approved by the local ethics committee.
Statistical Analyses
All analyses were performed with the Statistical
Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Survival during 5 years of
follow-up was calculated by Kaplan-Meier curves for different groups
and differences were tested by the logrank test. Predictors of 5-year
cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were determined
by Cox proportional hazards multiple regression analysis, in
all casesbecause of the stratification procedurewith adjustment for
age, sex, IGT, and NIDDM. Results are described as relative risks (RRs)
(hazard ratios) with 95% CIs.
Potential risk factors measured on a continuous scale were used as such in the regression models, except for HDL-cholesterol and BMI, because the association of these variables with all-cause mortality was nonlinear. Therefore, a low HDL-cholesterol was defined as a level <0.9 mmol/L29 and obesity as BMI >27 kg/m2 for men and >26 kg/m2 for women.30 Levels of fasting insulin and triglyceride were log-transformed because of a better fit of the regression model. To evaluate a possible effect-modifying role of potential risk factors, Cox regression analyses were performed with the risk factor of interest, MA (or PAD), and their product term in the model. A significant relative risk for the product term was considered as effect modification by that risk factor. To assess whether MA and PAD were independently associated with mortality, regression analyses were primarily adjusted for all risk factors that were statistically significant in initial analyses and secondarily for other potential risk factors of interest which showed no significant association in the initial analyses.
To investigate whether MA and PAD affected risk of mortality through similar pathways, regression analyses were performed that included both MA and PAD as independent variables. Two-sided probability values <0.05 were considered statistically significant.
| Results |
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Cardiovascular Mortality
Age, hypertension, a low HDL-cholesterol level,
triglyceride level, NIDDM, and preexistent IHD were
significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality
after adjusting for age, gender, IGT, and NIDDM (Table 2
). In the entire group, MA and PAD were
both associated with about 4-fold increased risk of
cardiovascular death after adjusting for age, gender,
IGT, and NIDDM (Table 3
; Figure 1a
and 1b
). After further adjustment for
hypertension, low level of HDL-cholesterol,
triglyceride level, and preexistent IHD, the RRs associated
with MA and PAD were 3.3 and 3.6, respectively (Table 3
). After
additional adjustment for current smoking, obesity, and total
cholesterol level, the RR of MA was similar and the RR of
PAD decreased to 2.4 (Table 3
; models 1 to 3).
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Further analyses were aimed at investigating whether
cardiovascular mortality risks associated with MA and
PAD were independent of each other. Mutual adjustment of MA and PAD did
not materially change the RR for cardiovascular
mortality, even after adjusting for other risk factors (Table 3
,
models 4 to 6). The risk of cardiovascular mortality
showed around 13-fold (2.98x4.31; Table 3
) increase if both MA
and PAD were present compared with absent (Figure 2
).
|
Age, obesity, current smoking, hypertension, levels of total and
HDL-cholesterol and triglyceride, NIDDM, and
preexistent IHD showed no significant interaction with MA or PAD (all
P>0.2, data not shown). Subgroup analyses in
nondiabetic and diabetic subjects separately showed higher RRs
associated with MA and PAD among diabetic compared with nondiabetic
subjects (Table 3
). In a forward stepwise regression model,
including all variables shown in Table 2
, age, current
smoking, low level of HDL-cholesterol, NIDDM, preexistent
IHD, and MA were significantly associated with
cardiovascular mortality (Table 4
).
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Four subjects died of sudden death. When sudden death was enclosed in
the definition, the RRs of cardiovascular mortality
were 3.66 (1.59 to 8.39) for MA and 3.52 (1.52 to 7.72) for PAD in
analyses similar to model 1 in Table 3
.
Inclusion of serum creatinine or creatinine clearance (Ccr) calculated from the Cockroft and Gault formula28 in the analyses above slightly decreased the RRs for MA and PAD. Further analyses showed that this was entirely due to subjects with moderate renal failure (Ccr<51 mL/min; n=22); after exclusion of these subjects, the respective RRs were similar to those in the initial analyses (data not shown).
All-Cause mortality
MA and PAD were both associated with an about 2-fold increased
risk of all-cause mortality after adjusting for age, gender, IGT, and
NIDDM (Table 5
). Further adjustment for
current smoking, low level of HDL-cholesterol, level of
triglyceride, and preexistent IHD slightly decreased the
RRs associated with MA and PAD (to 1.85 and 1.64, respectively). These
RRs were similar after further adjustment for obesity, hypertension,
and total cholesterol level (Table 5
). Additional
analyses indicated that the risk estimates for MA and PAD were
markedly (about 5- and 4-fold) higher in the presence of hypertension
than in its absence (P for interaction=0.15 and 0.08,
respectively; Table 5
). The RR of mortality associated with MA
among hypertensive nondiabetic subjects (n=150) was 2.63 (0.64 to
10.83) in an analysis analogous to model 1 in Table 5
.
Age, obesity, current smoking, level of total and
HDL-cholesterol and triglyceride, NIDDM, and
preexisting IHD showed no interaction with MA or PAD with regard to
risk of mortality (data not shown).
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The RRs associated with MA and PAD, after adjusting for age, gender, IGT, and NIDDM, were not importantly affected by mutual adjustment; both remained about 2.0 (data not shown). After further adjustment for current smoking, low level of HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride level, and preexistent IHD, the RRs (95% CIs) were 1.73 (0.89 to 3.38) for MA and 1.46 (0.73 to 2.91) for PAD. These RRs were similar after further adjustment for obesity, hypertension, and total cholesterol level (data not shown).
Inclusion of serum creatinine or creatinine clearance (Ccr) calculated from the Cockroft and Gault formula28 in the analyses above slightly decreased the RRs for MA and PAD. Further analyses showed that this was entirely due to subjects with moderate renal failure (Ccr<51 mL/min; n=22); after exclusion of these subjects, the respective RRs were similar to those in the initial analyses (data not shown).
Twenty-six subjects (45%) died of cancer. Neither MA nor PAD were significantly associated with cancer mortality [RRs 0.96 (0.28 to 3.27) and 1.05 (0.36 to 3.07), respectively].
Finally, we examined whether changing the definitions of PAD and MA would affect our results. Lowering the ABPI criterion from 0.9 to 0.8 or 0.7 did not materially affect the results (data not shown). MA defined as ACR >3.0 mg/mmol somewhat increased the RRs among diabetic subjects: for example, the RR for all-cause mortality adjusted for age and sex was 3.01 (1.34 to 6.75) versus 2.22 (1.01 to 4.87) when MA was defined as ACR >2.0 mg/mmol. Other risk estimates showed only minor changes (data not shown). Excluding subjects with macroalbuminuria (ACR >30 mg/mmol; n=6) gave similar results (data not shown). When MA was defined on the basis of 1 overnight urine sample in all subjects, the results were also similar (data not shown). Other definitions of a low HDL-cholesterol and obesity also gave similar results.
| Discussion |
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Our study confirms that MA and PAD are strong indicators of an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality, independent of the presence of important cardiovascular risk factors such as hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and hypertension.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 PAD is thought to be a marker of generalized atherosclerotic disease, which is a plausible explanation for the increased risk of mortality in subjects with PAD.14 15 16 In contrast, it is unclear why MA is associated with an increased mortality risk.1 2 4 6 8 It has been suggested that MA, like PAD, is a marker of generalized atherosclerosis.31 32 33 34 35 36 Two findings of the present study argue against this idea. First, only about 25% of subjects with MA also had PAD and vice versa. Second, the increased risk of mortality conferred by the presence of MA was not materially lowered by including PAD in the multivariate regression model, which would have been expected if MA affected risk through generalized atherosclerosis.
How, then, can the association between MA and mortality be explained? First, MA is associated with increased levels of von Willebrand factor, thrombomodulin, fibrinogen, thrombinantithrombin III complexes and impaired fibrinolytic activity and may thus be a marker of a prothrombotic state.37 38 39 Second, MA may reflect a specific type of endothelial dysfunction18 40 distinct from atherosclerosis per se. Finally, MA in part may be a marker of a low-grade chronic inflammatory state,41 which itself is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease.42 43 Taken together, these data and the present study support the hypothesis that MA and PAD affect risk through different pathways. Further studies are needed to address the mechanisms by which MA increases the risk of cardiovascular disease in more detail.
We found that both MA and PAD were associated more strongly with
all-cause mortality among hypertensive than among normotensive subjects
(Table 5
), although the confidence intervals of the risk
estimates clearly do not exclude the possibility of significant
associations of MA and PAD with mortality among normotensive subjects.
In previous studies, the mortality risk associated with MA or PAD has
usually been adjusted for the presence of
hypertension1 2 4 or systolic or
diastolic blood pressure.3 5 8 However, this
does not necessarily rule out the presence of an interaction with
hypertension, as suggested by our results. The explanation for these
findings is not clear, but it is noteworthy that, in the same
population, we found the presence of hypertension (and NIDDM) to be the
strongest determinants of MA.22 This, together with the
present results, raises the possibility that, in the presence of
hypertension, the pathogenetic backgrounds of MA and PAD and of their
link with mortality are distinct from those in the absence of
hypertension. These issues require further investigation.
MA was thus significantly associated with all-cause mortality among hypertensive subjects, which is in agreement with some,44 45 but not all34 previous studies, whereas other studies2 4 6 8 did not specifically examine this issue. This result, however, has to be interpreted with caution, because our study was not specifically designed to answer this question and lacked information about duration and type of hypertension. Nevertheless, our data add to accumulating evidence that, among hypertensive subjects, both overt proteinuria46 47 and MA44 45 may be markers of a poor prognosis.
The clinical implication of our findings is that both measurement
of the ankle-brachial blood pressure index and of the urinary
albumin excretion is useful to estimate individual risk (Tables 3 to 5![]()
![]()
). Both measurements are easy to obtain. All-cause
and cardiovascular mortality risk are increased about
3-fold and 15-fold, respectively, when both PAD and MA are present,
compared with when both are absent (Figure 2
). It is especially
noteworthy that the association of MA with
cardiovascular mortality is of the same order of
magnitude as those of NIDDM and preexistent ischemic heart
disease (Table 4
).
Our study had several limitations. In the majority of subjects,
MA was estimated from 1 urine sample, which may have increased
nondifferential misclassification, leading to an underestimation of the
association with mortality. The study was too small to establish
definitively whether MA and PAD are significantly stronger risk markers
in hypertensive than in normotensive subjects. The study was also too
small to investigate whether the increased mortality risk associated
with MA among hypertensive subjects varied with the mode of treatment
of hypertension or its duration, or with the level of blood pressure.
Although we found evidence against the concept that MA is a marker of
generalized atherosclerosis, we did not address
alternative mechanisms linking MA to mortality. Finally, our study
lacked the power to exclude with confidence the presence of interaction
between glucose tolerance status and MA (or PAD) with respect to
cardiovascular mortality. Both MA and PAD were in fact
more strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality
in diabetic than in nondiabetic subjects, although this was not
significant (Table 3
). However, it appears unlikely that such an
interaction, if present, would affect our main conclusion, ie, that
MA and PAD are mutually independent risk indicators.
In conclusion, we have shown that both MA and PAD are
independently associated with cardiovascular mortality
and so may affect risk through different pathways. Measurement of the
urinary albumin excretion and the ankle-brachial pressure index
are therefore useful to estimate individual risk (Figure 2
and
Table 4
). Such information is clinically useful, because it can
help to individualize decisions on, for example,
cholesterol- and blood pressure-lowering treatment.
Furthermore, the associations of MA and PAD with mortality seem more
pronounced in hypertensive than in normotensive subjects. Further
studies are needed to clarify the underlying pathophysiologic mechanism
linking MA to (cardiovascular) mortality, as this may
have additional therapeutic implications.
| Acknowledgments |
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Received June 15, 1998; accepted August 18, 1998.
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